Why Spain Will Win Any Penalty Shootout

For many years, I have believed penalty shootouts to be sort of rubbish and a game of chance. I always thought that penalties were more or less 50-50, depending on whether the goalkeeper guessed the right direction or not.

I was a fool to believe that. Everything changed when I watched the Spain vs Italy penalty shootouts in Euro 2008. Spain won the shootout 4-2, courtesy of two saves from Iker Casillas. Even the ones that went in, Casillas dove in the right direction. Was lady luck smiling upon Casillas that night, or was there something more to it? 

Well, I don't know about those world class coaches, but after thinking about it quite a lot, I realized what was Casillas' secret. From then on, I have always had faith that Spain will never lose in any penalty shootout (almost never, I suppose). This was because Casillas will dive in the right direction almost every single time. This was again exemplified in the Euro 2012 shootout between Spain and Portugal.

How can Casillas consistently dive in the right direction? Well, after today, this will no longer be a secret. If you are footballer, pay attention closely to what I am about to reveal. Just before you kick the ball, assuming you are using your in-step, you would have to plant your feet next to the ball. Observe where the toes of your planted foot is pointing to. Yes, it is pointing to roughly the direction you are aiming. There is no way around this, unless of course you intend to kick with your out-step. But no one with common sense would do that in a penalty shootout.

Just imagine, if you are a right footer, and you plan to kick towards the right, there is NO WAY your planted foot can be pointed to the left. It would be a very awkward kick. But of course, if you were aiming to the left, which is the natural direction, your left foot would not be aiming directly to the left, but rather closer to the middle. But you cannot deny that it is obviously pointing a lot closer to the left than if you were aiming to the right.

If all this is too tedious to imagine, just go to 2:10 in the second video above, or look at the picture below:

Pepe directed his kick to the right (of Casillas). It is not so clear in the screenshot, but if you watch the video closely, you can tell distinctly that Pepe was aiming to the right. It will take several viewings. But it is most definitely discernible.  

I think Casillas has figured this out after watching thousands of penalty takers. I am not a professional goalkeeper, but this is my two cents after considering how Casillas has managed to gain such a huge edge during penalties. Of course, this is not to say Casillas is going to save every kick. Even if he were to dive in the right direction, the power and accuracy still plays a role, as demonstrated above. Pepe made the shot. But diving in the right direction is infinitely better than diving in the wrong direction. Surely, you can't deny that?

I don't think the Germans or Italians are going to read this blog, so I am not worried about them discovering Casillas' secret and things may not even go to the shootouts in the finals. And even if they figured this out, and it went to the shootouts, I seriously doubt there is much anyone can do about it. You can't change the way you kick the ball naturally. If you tried, you would just lose a lot of power and accuracy and that could just be enough to see Spain win back-to-back Euros. 

Reactions to the BPL on Sunday ala Meme

In the 93rd minute, when it all seemed doomed for Manchester City to not win the BPL. It would seem that we will once again have to hear the boasting and the gloating of all Manchester United fans for another year. But then...

Volume 4 Issue 15: Intelligent Investing

Senegal Can Have Proper Democracy. Why Not Malaysia?

For many Malaysians, we have only heard of this country in Africa, Senegal, because of football. 

Compared with its neighbors, it is relatively small in size. Its total land area is about 197,000 square km, about half that of Malaysia. As with most other African nations, Senegal is a relatively poor country, with GDP per capita less than USD2,000. Compared with Malaysia, Senegal's economy would make Malaysia look like Singapore - see Chart 1.

Chart 1

Despite the given circumstances, Senegal even manages to have a proper democracy:

Senegal’s democratic tradition deeply shapes ordinary people’s expectations. In June 2011, Wade attempted to amend the constitution to eliminate a second round of voting in presidential elections should the leading candidate win 25% in the first round, rather than 50%. This effort at a constitutional coup was thwarted by massive protests in front of parliament. Slogans like “Touche pas à ma Constitution” (Don't touch my Constitution) were accompanied by “Wade, dégage!” (Wade, get out!), reminiscent of the chants in Tunisia, “Ben Ali, dégage!” 

Democratic resistance worked, blocking the amendment and creating the possibility of defeating Wade’s run for a third term. In the first round on February 26, voters showed a higher level of trust in their electoral institutions than did many political actors, who urged postponement of the election, or a boycott, on the grounds that Wade’s control of the state apparatus made a free and fair election impossible. 

In fact, a well-organized civil society and an independent press ensured that the results could not be rigged. For example, as soon as results were counted locally, they were immediately announced nationally by independent television and radio broadcasters, even when state TV stopped disclosing results. International pressure, especially from the United States, France, and the European Union, also helped to marginalize the hard-liners in Wade's entourage. 

In the crucial first round, only 35% of the electorate voted for Wade. Opposition candidates like Macky Sall, who bet on high voter turnout, fared much better than candidates who took the fight to the streets or, hoping the election would be postponed, started campaigning too late. With 26% of the first-round vote, Macky Sall was on the ballot for the runoff. 

Voters, especially in Senegal’s cities, eschewed vote-buying and instructions by some religious leaders to vote for Wade, whose aggressive strategy of clientilism and ethnic divisiveness failed conspicuously. By violating the symmetry of respect and equidistance between ethnic groups that characterizes Senegal’s pluralism, he offended far more people than he attracted. 

In the second round, all 12 unsuccessful candidates supported Sall, as they had pledged to do. With the opposition strongly united, Sall more than doubled his first-round vote, reaching 66%, while popular support for Wade stagnated. The army adhered to its tradition of non-intervention and explicitly let the president know that the result had to be respected.

So, why can't Malaysia?

Volume 4 Issue 10: Intelligent Investing

Spanish La Liga 2011/12 Craziness

Just to prove that life is not just about the grind, I do keep up with football news, especially about the La Liga. Every one knows that the La Liga has been a two horse race since as far as most of us can remember. But just some quick insane trivia. Just look at the GD column. For the uninitiated, it stands for Goal Difference, which is the difference between goals scored and the goals conceded.

The goal difference of 69 by Real Madrid or 62 by Barcelona may mean nothing to you but if you compare it relatively, the next closest competitor has a goal difference of 9. This means that Real and Barca are able to win by a goal margin of about seven times more than their closest opponents.

On average, Real wins by a goal margin of 2.4 goals per game, while Barca wins by an average goal margin of 2.1 goals per game.

It is not shown in the table, but in the 29 games played, Real has scored 95 goals this season, which is an average of 3.3 goals per game. Barca has scored 84 goals, which is an average of 2.9 goals per game.

Delving deeper, at this stage, Cristina Ronaldo (aka diver, pussy, etc) has scored 35 of her team's 95 goals, which translates to 36.8% of Real's goals. Lionel Messi has also scored 35 goals, which translates to 41.7% of Barca's goals.

And also, just a tribute to Messi, I'd like to congratulate him for becoming the highest all-time scorer for Barcelona, and here are 234 of his goals in 12 minutes.

It Is Like He Never Left

Maybe I am a bit late to this party, but it really feels like he never left. Thierry Henry, world class to the end.

The Real Reason Why Manchester City Is A Contender

After the trashing of Manchester United over the last weekend, some people are beginning to believe that Manchester City are going to be contenders of the title.

I have always been skeptical of one off results. Not because I am a Manchester United fan. Because I am not. Those of you who know me long enough will know. Frankly, after seeing the results of the game, I remember thinking, "These upstarts are going to let the result get to their head and their season will crumble after Christmas".

I have been watching or following the Premier League for a really long time. And if there's one thing that I can take away from every season, it is this simple fact: "Whatever happens before Christmas does not matter". I have seen Kevin Keegan's Newcastle United blow away a 12-point lead in 1995/96.

But what I read today shows some promise:

"“This is only one game,” Mancini (picture) told a news conference. “I think United is one yard above us still ... we can change this only if we win (the title) in the end. After maybe it is different but now United is better than us.”"

This comes from a manager with pure class. After trashing his opponents (the defending champion, no less) with a score of 6-1, he still insists that the opponents are better. This is also reinforced by the fact that Mancini is able to keep Balotelli in check.

This is an example. Balotelli is a double-edged sword. He is super-talented and full of flair. But he is unpredictable and very often overdoes it. This is the huge danger that Manchester City faces. They were in danger of becoming like Balotelli when they beat Manchester United 6-1. But after what Mancini said above, I am inclined to think otherwise. 

Christina Ronaldo

After reading this article on why Christina Ronaldo thinks he gets boo-ed, I just can't help laughing. 

Here is what Christina thinks:

“I’m sad because I hear referees saying they will protect skilful players, but while some are untouchable it seems I can be mauled.”

“I think that because I am rich, handsome and a great player people are envious of me,” he said. “I don’t have any other explanation.”

To see the truth why no one protects the girl who cried wolf, watch the video below. It is a MUST WATCH.